Elite Sports Betting Tips: September 30
English Premier League - Fulham vs Newcastle United - Asian Total Over 2.5 @ 1.89
Nick
Fulham have punched above their weight so far this season, led very ably by Aleksandr Mitrovic who already has six goals to his name.
Six of their opening seven games have had at least three goals, so they’re a great spectacle for the neutral, if anything else.
A win this game will see them pushing for a previously improbably top-4 position.
Whilst Newcastle have had their moments this season, they’ve not met the high expectations placed on them with the squad they’ve been able to assemble.
They’re yet to record a victory since their opening day win against Nottingham, and need to get a move on if they’re to keep up with the big clubs.
They will be buoyed by their recent record at Craven Cottage however.
In a game that both teams will quietly fancy themselves to win, the overs seems decent value for this game. 2 units
NFL - Kansas City Vs Tampa Bay - Chiefs to win @ 1.95
Blake
The odds makers seem to be keen to fade the Chiefs this week as Patrick Mahomes and his team head to a windswept Florida.
But Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense have have had a fairly inauspicious start to the season.
And we know the Chiefs can pile on points quickly so the moneyline is a little perplexing in this one.
We’re going to back the Chiefs in to get it done. They have the tools to win this one whether it becomes a slog or opens up.
We’ll play fairly aggressively here with two units in order to capitalize on the seemingly big price. 1 unit
NRL - Penrith Panthers v Parramatta Eels - Parramatta Eels +8.5 @ 1.90
Brad
After 25 grueling rounds in the regular season and three weeks of thrilling finals football, we’ve made it to the 2022 NRL Grand Final.
We have a promoter's dream for the last day of the season with Western Sydney rivals Penrith Panthers and Parramatta Eels to battle it out for the right to lift the Provan-Summons Trophy.
The Panthers are in their third Grand Final in a row and are looking to make it back-to-back premierships.
This is Parramatta’s first Grand Final since 2009 and are out to break a 36-year premiership drought.
Penrith are deserved favourites but the quote on offer is far too short. If there is a team in the competition that can beat the Panthers it is the Eels, having done so twice already this year.
An extremely close game is expected in this one with both packs expected to do plenty of damage.
For the braver punters out there backing Parramatta 1x2 at 3.70 is a tantalizing proposition but we’re going to play it safe and give them an 8.5 start in the biggest game of the season. 1 units
NCAAF - James Madison Dukes v Texas State Bobcats - Texas State +21.5 Handicap @ 1.90
George
This college football matchup is basically a ‘sell high’ option on James Madison, who have started their season off in amazing style with a 3-0 record thanks mainly to their stubborn defensive unit, who is sitting at 8th in the pro football focus power rankings in this department.
Their efforts last week was simply phenomenal, erasing a 28-3 deficit to snatch a late win over Appalachian State and looking to continue their fairy-tale start at home against a Bobcats team who has experienced struggles against the run.
While everything points to another convincing win, this matchup possesses all the pre-match signs of regression about to take its course.
Despite Texas State’s woes against the run, their secondary looks quite sound allowing 5.8 yards per passing attempt which has resulted in them being the second-highest rated secondary unit in the country according to PPF; furthermore, they have barely allowed any big plays which has their defensive team ranked first in the country for explosive plays against.
This is eye-opening considering James Madison’s reliance on junior QB Todd Centeiro, who is currently boasting a PFF passing grade of 92.3 placing him at second across all play-callers in the NCAAF behind Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan thanks to his perfect 11 TD, 0 interception record so far this season.
The data is showing me an underwhelming performance ahead for the Dukes, and while they may sneak over the line again I feel a three-touchdown head start for Texas State is too good value to pass up considering their strong defence and ability to slow the game down! 3 units
English Premier League - Arsenal v Tottenham - Anytime Goalscorer Harry Kane @ 2.55
Dom Rae
The first North London Derby of the season takes on real significance as the top side in the Premier League hosts the team in third, with just one point separating the teams and near identical attacking and defensive statistics.
Both sides have been identified as potential title challengers in some quarters and both will want to lay down a marker, so we should be in for a barnstorming clash.
Arsenal lost their biggest major test so far to Manchester United the game before last but bounced back with aplomb to beat Brentford 3-0 in what was little more than a training exercise, while Tottenham dismantled a hapless Leicester side 6-2 last time out, with Son Heung-Min bouncing back to form with a sensational hattrick.
The last time these sides met was a chastening 3-0 defeat to Arsenal when they had a top four place in their grasp, and Mikel Arteta's men will be desperate to lay the demons of that game to rest.
The man who scored twice in that fateful game though is Harry Kane, a man with six Premier League goals to his name this season already and whom would surely be odds-on favourite for the Golden Boot were it not for the ridiculous form of Erling Haaland.
Kane has scored more goals against Arsenal than any other team (a whopping 13 in 15 games) and showed his nerve for the big occasion with an unstoppable penalty against Germany in midweek for England.
It's tough to make a call on the head to head result in this fixture but one thing we know is that Arsenal will dread to sight of Kane in the Spurs line up, and the England captain can once again play tormentor in chief to the Gunners back line. 1 unit
Serie A - SSC Napoli vs Torino FC - 1x2 & Both Teams to Score - Napoli & No @ 2.70 - 1 Unit
Caelum
Napoli have had a red hot start to their season, with two big wins in the Champions League and an unbeaten start in the league season.
They are coming off a big win away at the San Siro against defending league champions AC Milan, so confidence will be high.
They do have an away trip to Ajax midweek, but given their opponents this weekend, we'll back them to still get home comfortably.
Torino have lost their last two matches and in general, have not set the world on fire in the last few seasons.
They were almost relegated in the COVID-affected 20/21 season.
After club stalwart Andrea Belotti left the club for free and joined Jose Mourinho at Roma, they have struggled to find goals, especially in their matches against quality opposition.
Two goals in their last four matches is a testament to the lack of firepower they possess.
Given how strongly Napoli have been at home this season, we'll back them to get the job done with Alex Meret's goal left untouched. 1 unit
League Of Legends World Championships - Mad Lions v Saigon Buffalo - Saigon Buffalo @ $2.85
Matt R
In this match it's a cautious pick of Saigon Buffalo as they are coming into this competition as a dark horse however Mad Lions haven't shown much from their recent performances which is what's pushing me towards Saigon Buffalo.
Look for a domination of the charm spells, dragon takedowns and map teleporting by the Saigon front attack early on which I believe will leave Mad Lions defenceless in the early stages.
Character picking will also be crucial in this clash and Saigon are known for going heavy in attack and this will prove to be the downfall of Mad Lions with their defence strategy.
I'm not expecting an easy watch her so tread carefully with bet sizing although I like a dark horse so I'm going with 3 units on the head to head. 2 units
ESL Pro League - G2 vs Navi - Winner Navi @ 1.71
Alex
Now into the quarter finals of the ESL Pro League, we have an interesting matchup between these two teams.
While G2 have been in great form, now on a 6-match win streak (defeating top teams such as Vitality, MIBR, BIG, Faze and outsiders), three weeks have elapsed since their last match.
It's difficult to say if they are still in great shape. On the other hand, Navi's last few matches haven't looked great, having lost to Vitality, Nip and Endpoint.
However, their match against Heroic yesterday, was quite impressive considering the technical issues they faced from the targeted Steam exploit.
For map picks, we'll likely see Navi pick Mirage again, while G2 will probably pick either Dust 2 or Ancient. Overall, an exciting matchup, taking Navi for the win. 1 unit
English Premier League - AFC Bournemouth v Brentford FC - 1x2 & Total Brentford FC & Under 2.5 @ 4.70
Cesar
League soccer is back!
After a decent International Break, players are back to business with their respective clubs to either chase titles, fight for promotions or to stay up!
For this weekend we will be choosing an EPL mid table clash with two teams that have been re-building their football in recent times, showing good signs and at times providing us with exciting football.
Bournemouth has had a decent start to the season so far.
Having made some sensitive transfers to improve their squad this season they seem to be paying off.
Having lost only to top teams like Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool, they have secured decent results against mid/bottom of the table teams.
Brentford too, are enjoying a good start to the season having also been promoted this year.
Their football has showed glimpses of top quality counter attacks and has allowed players such as Ivan Toney to shine and prove themselves.
He has proven to be a great finisher so far, earning a spot in the England national team this year.
This may be something to draw extra motivation from and hopefully results in a good run in form.
Brentford has also secured some surprising results against more experienced teams such as Leeds, Man Utd, Leicester and Crystal Palace.
Although they don’t have a flashy team, they have been able to play some flashy football thanks to the chemistry that the players have.
All in all, considering both teams positions on the table, the recent form of each team, the conditions of the game and the history between the two, I actually expect this match to be low scoring but I put my faith with Brentford securing the win. 2 units
NFL - Pittsburgh v Cincinnati - Cincinnati -5.5 @ 1.80
Nathan Pap
The most special time of the year is back and could not think of a better way to kick off the season than with a classic AFC North rivalry.
Riding high from their dream run last season and strong off-season, the Bengals begin their quest to get back to the Super Bowl.
The Steelers are have a lot of unknowns and will be starting the season for a new QB for the first time in over a decade.
Paycor Stadium will be rocking in Ohio and Joe Burrow and company start their year off in hot fashion.
Bengals to win and cover fairly comfortably. 1 unit
UFC Fight Night - Dern vs Xiaonan - Asian Total Over 2.5 rounds @ 1.71
Ben
UFC Fight Night is headlined by a battle in the Women’s Strawweight division.
Dern being ranked #5 and Yan #6 in the division we should see an exciting fight.
I'm expecting to see a drawn out match featuring a grappling display by Dern, but Xiaonan won't go down without resistance.
Xiaonan has a 15-3-0 record, with almost half of her victories coming via TKO/KO, the other half being decision, never submission.
It will take a few rounds for Dern to find a pattern to Xiaonan's striking offence and take her to the mat.
Over 2.5 rounds of action given both fighters styles is a likely outcome. 3 units
NFL - Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills - Baltimore Ravens @ 2.36
Tangy
There’s nothing we love more than seeing Home underdogs as we chase betting value.
And to add fuel to the fire, we have a locked in Lamar Jackson leading the charge.
The Buffalo Bills have stamped their mark early in the season, living up to the expectation as Super Bowl favourites and barring a blip to the Miami Dolphins in Week 3, they deserve all the plaudits coming their way.
But while Josh Allen is headlining MVP conversations, Lamar Jackson has put the Ravens on his back, putting up video game numbers while leading them to a 2-1 record.
The one loss also being a 21-pt comeback by the Miami Dolphins.
If there’s any comparison that can be made when looking at the two losses by both teams, is that the Ravens should’ve won, and we like the value we’re getting here! 3 units