Brasileiro Serie A - Sao Paulo FC vs SE Palmeiras - 1x2 SE Palmeiras @ $2.55
Palmeiras find themselves somewhat surprise leader of the competition after 12 games, but having gone 18 matches without a loss in all competitions - their last loss came in early April - its hard to begrudge them.
Going at an average of nearly two goals a game, and winning their last six away games, they’ve clearly shown they’re not afraid to chase a result on the road.
Despite the added pressure of a local rivalry, these odds are far too good to pass up for a very in-form team. 1 unit
World Cup of Darts - Sweden v South Africa - Winner Sweden @ 1.72
The World Cup is here! Of Darts, appreciated, but the World Cup…
The first round sees two nations with no big tradition of darts square off, making one of a few competitively priced matches and I think Sweden could be value.
They have a team of Daniel Larsson and Johan Engström who are ranked 135 & 143 respectively with a combined 17 titles - mainly in Scandinavian events.
Larsson is trying to get his pro card and managed to qualify for the World Championships in December, which is no walk in the park!
Devon Petersen of South Africa, was whitewashed 3-0 in the same World Champs 1st round as Larsson against a PDC unranked Aussie named Raymond Smith.
Why this is relevant is because he is currently the World No. 27. Since that result in Dec 2021, his 2022 record reads W7, L20 and his wins are all but 1 against much lower ranked players.
But some of his losses have really looked terrible against World Numbers 79, 104, 105, 131 & 150. He is struggling.
And his partner is an unknown youth qualifier, so really hard to judge him.
Expect the season veterans combined strength to overcome the out-of-form talent and the unknown apprentice. 1.5 units
CS:GO - Blast Premier Spring Final - Faze vs Navi - Total Maps: Over 2.5 @ 1.93
A tough one to pick here. Faze's recent form hasn't been great, losing to G2, Cloud 9 and Ence.
Navi have had some drama recently regarding Boombl4, who has been dropped from the side.
The most recent matchup between these teams ended in a 2-0 victory for Faze, however the 2nd map did go into overtime.
Very likely we will see a close contest between these sides. Taking over 2.5 maps. 1 Unit
UFC Fight Night Kattar vs Emmett - Adrian Yanez vs Tony Kelley - Yanez by KO @ 2.60
After a barnburner last weekend for UFC 275, the big show heads back to Austin Texas for another sneaky good card.
Not many would disagree that Yanez has some of the cleanest boxing in the UFC and he comes up against a somewhat controversial figure in Tony Kelley.
Expect this to be a fun fight and if it stays on the feet as expected, Yanez can pick his way to victory with power or precision.
Either way the damage should accumulate to the point where we see a stoppage at some time before the final bell. 1 unit
NRL - Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos - Melbourne Storm Total over 28.5 @1.93
Ever since the departure of the Adelaide Rams from the competition, Melbourne Storm have been the dominant team in the competition, and they have continued this form in 2022, currently sitting in second spot.
While the broncos have been a much stronger outfit this season, at AAMI Park on a Friday night, I am expecting them to put on a big performance and put the rest of the comp on notice.
MLS - Atlanta United FC - Inter Miami CF - 1x2 & Total Atlanta United FC & Over 2.5 @ 2.03
Good old soccer continues with the MLS!
This weekend we will see a decent clash between Atlanta United vs Inter Miami which is set to provide attacking football goods.
Atlanta have had a strange season from what was expected from them, having won as many matches as theyve won, and losing five
To add to this, their goal difference is exactly 0, which just goes to show how good they can attack, and how bad they can defend at the same time…
Inter Miami on the other hand, are having a somewhat disappointing season, not performing to their expectations and conceding seven goals more than they have scored, showing their troubles on defence.
However, they have managed to secure important wins and are lingering between the middle of the table.
Atlanta, although two points behind Inter, are sure to be seeking revenge at home and turn it around against Inter.
I saw some good energy on their recent win, with positive plays and attacking football I’ll predict they carry that on to this match, coming out victorious with over 2.5 goals in the match. 1 unit
AFL - St. Kilda Saints vs Essendon Bombers
Winning Margin - St. Kilda 15-31 @ 4.1
We move down-under to find our pick this week, in a Friday night blockbuster between the Saints and Bombers.
If we have a look at this matchup on paper there is not the slightest worry that the Sainters will pick up the win here, up against the lowly placed Bombers who look in all sorts of strife.
With the addition of two key playmakers in Hunter Clark and Jack Billings for St. Kilda and the massive out of their standout player of the season thus far Darcy Parish for Essendon, some might even fancy a blowout score.
But with the handicap at -25.5, I’m confident the Bombers can save another embarrassing result and we’ll look to the back of their next up stars, the likes of Zach Merrett and welcoming back of Andrew McGrath to still provide some quality attack in a game that is your guaranteed lock on the Saints.
Follow in on the massive value here with the Saints winning margin 15-31 at 4.1!! 4 units
Super Rugby Final - Blues v Crusaders - 1x2 Crusaders @ 2.05
We’ve reached the final game of Super Rugby for 2022 with two New Zealand sides facing off to lift the trophy.
The Auckland-based Blues are aiming to win their first title since 2003 (they did however win the regional Super Rugby Trans Tasman last year), while the Crusaders are looking to win their 11th Super Rugby title having won the last three before COVID played havoc on the competition.
The Blues have been the best team all year and are undefeated in 2022 at Eden Park, the venue for this one.
They are however somewhat lucky to be here after they just got the better of the Brumbies in their Semi Final last week, winning by a solitary point.
The Crusaders had a much easier time of it last weekend with a comfortable 20-7 win over the Chiefs.
The Blues may be favourites but you simply can’t go past the Crusaders in a final.
The most successful side in the competition's history lives for this time of year and we’re going to side with them to lift the trophy yet again. 2 units
CFL - Saskatchewan Roughriders v Edmonton Elks - Saskatchewan -7.5 handicap line @ 1.91
This week's CFL tip is based solely on the QB v QB matchup.
The Roughriders' playcaller, Cody Fajardo, looked unstoppable once he got going, recording 353 total yards and 2 all purpose TDs, including 42 rushing yards at 4.2 yds per carry.
His versatility will be tough for an Edmonton defense who, while not as bad as last week's 59 points conceded suggests, will lack the smarts to nullify his versatility.
On the other side, the Elk's playcaller - Nick Arbuckle - looked horrible in their week 1 blowout loss, throwing three interceptions and showing no confidence in their rare redzone attempts.
Despite evidence suggesting the contrary, it looks like they will go with him as the starter.
This line was -6.5 at the start of the week, and won't be surprised if this moves up as high as -10 before kickoff. Taking the -8 in what could be a routine W for one of the CFL's stronger franchises. 2 units
ATP Halle - Hubert Hurkacz v Felix Auger-Aliassime Total Games Over 23.5 @ 1.92
An exciting quarter final match up looms in Halle as Felix Auger-Aliassime takes on Hubert Hurkacz with the winner likely to be facing off against Nick Kyrgios in the semi final.
Hurkacz is the outsider in this contest but burst onto the global stage with a straight sets victory over Roger Federer at Wimbledon last year so this surface is clearly to his liking.
The powerful Pole knocked out reigning champion Ugo Humbert in his previous match and will come into this with plenty of confidence.
Canadian Auger-Aliassime is having a fine year, winning his first ATP title recently, and is worthy favourite for this.
He took eventual champion Rafael Nadal to five sets at the French Open and actually beat Hurkacz in the first round of this tournament last year, but there remains a nagging doubt about him on this surface and he surprisingly lost to world 106 Tim van Rijthoven in the semi finals of the Libema Open last week.
Both players will fancy their chances here and will be looking to gain some confidence ahead of Wimbledon, so we can expect a tight match and a play on the overs in total games looks a sensible play. 1 unit
While this bet is being taken with Carlton still having a game in between, there is no way that this price holds at 1.95.
Carlton play tonight against an Essendon team that they will beat fairly comfortably, which will see this price come in a little further.
There is a fair bit that separates these two sides, with Carlton already beating Richmond once this year.
I cannot believe they are outsiders, looking at form, who each team has beaten, as well as the two sides on paper head to head. Carlton are the better team. 2 units
AFL - West Coast Eagles vs Geelong Cats - Asian Handicap - West Coast +42.5 @ 1.90
It's been a disastrous season to say the least for Adam Simpson's Eagles.
Bottom of the ladder with the solitary win, they will not have anything more than pride to play for in the second half of the season.
Injuries have cruelled them, but a host of extremely inexperienced late draft picks, as well as many top up players due to COVID outbreaks, have hardly helped.
They will now face the fifth placed Cats, who are pushing for another double chance spot with their bye in the rear view mirror.
On paper, this looks a major mismatch. But the Eagles have a trick up their sleeve, five in fact.
It's not common you can bring five premiership players back into the fold and that's exactly what the Eagles should be able to do this week (at the time of writing).
Elliot Yeo, Dom Sheed, Liam Ryan, Willie Rioli and Jeremy McGovern are all but ready to play this weekend, with many Eagles youngsters set to miss out as a result.
It should go without saying this will significantly help the Eagles.
On the flip side, Geelong are also looking at a few inclusions with Jack Henry and Shaun Higgins at the top of the list.
Star defender Tom Stewart is also expected to play after a week off for concussion protocols. But the Cats have never beaten the Eagles at Optus Stadium, with only three of their eight matches at the venue seeing them run out victors (two against Fremantle and one against GWS).
In fact, the last time Geelong beat West Coast in Perth was in 2013 at the old Subiaco Oval.
Their ability to travel will be tested.
We're not doubting that the Cats will break their nine year drought away to West Coast, but the Eagles are a much better chance than the price suggests in spite of their insipid first half of 2022. 1 unit
MLB - Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Winner (incl. Extra Innings) - Milwaukee Brewers @ 1.87
After a winning selection on the Twins to take the victory at home against the Rays last week, we're going back to the MLB again here for another fill up.
This match is priced close to evenly; we're seeing some value here, given the Reds terrible season record of 23-40 (including just 12-17 at home) in comparison to the Brewers, who sit with a .538 record and who have a record of 20-18 on the road - where they play here.
Taking a deeper look at the expected starting pitchers can provide us with some more confidence.
Hunter Greene (expected Reds starter) did well last time out at home, pitching 7 shutout innings against Arizona.
However, in the fixture before this (home to Cubs) he got belted around the park to the tune of 7 hits and 5 runs.
As he comes up against a solid road side in Milwaukee, we're gonna go with the Brewers to win. 1 unit
F1 Grand Prix du Canada 2022 - Race Canada Grand Prix Race - Top 3 Sainz Jr, Carlos @ 2.05
EIght races into the season and we’ve seen Carlos Sainz fall to fifth place in the driver’s standings mostly due to retirements.
However, on the five races that he finished he was in the podium four times!
Now that Ferrari is aware of their reliability issues and they’ve claimed that they have a short term fix for Sainz’s engine, assuming everything goes well, Sainz should have a spot waiting for him in the podium. 1 unit