Elite Sports Betting Tips: September 9
Serie A - Atalanta BC vs US Cremonese - Atalanta BC Highest Scoring Half 2nd Half @ 2.15
Nick
Atalanta are the feel good story of the Serie A, unlikely ladder leaders after five rounds.
They’re heavily fancied to take another 3 points against minnows US Cremonese, who have only managed 1 point from their first five games.
Whilst head-to-head markets don’t present much value, we’ve found a market which is well worth a shout.
All 6 of Atalanta’s goals in their past three games have come in the 2nd half, a team that can turn it on when needed.
Well back the trend. 2 units
UFC 279 - Ferguson vs Jingliang - Over 2.5 rounds @ 2.05
Blake
Despite the fact Ferguson was brutally finished last time, he's near impossible to finish in the Octagon.
Combine that with the fact this is only a 3 round fight and this really should get to the judges score cards.
While it's true that Ferguson looks over the odds, rather than play him at the big price, we can have a bet confidently into this market.
Expect a competitive co-main event with both fighters having their moments.
So long as this fight gets into the final two and a half minutes of the third round, we can put this one into the books. 2 units
NRL - Penrith Panthers v Parramatta Eels - 1x2 Parramatta @ 3.20
Brad
After 25 rounds of gruelling football we’re down to the Final 8 with the NRL Finals Series starting this weekend.
League Heads will be treated to four fantastic matchups in Week 1 of the Finals, including two big local derbies.
It’s the Battle of the West where we will be focusing on when Minor Premiers Penrith host the Eels at Panthers Stadium in the first game of the weekend on Friday night.
The Panthers may be defending premiers and favourites to go back-to-back, but they are somewhat vulnerable in this one.
They dropped their last game of the season having rested 13 players against the Cowboys.
Those players all come back into the squad, including captain Nathan Cleary who returns after a 5-game suspension.
Parramatta are the only team to defeat Penrith twice this season and head into this one high on confidence after their impressive win against Melbourne last week to seal fourth spot.
You’d expect the Panthers, especially Cleary, to be somewhat rusty leading into this big finals encounter while the Eels are battle hardened already and ready for a bruising encounter.
The Eels as underdogs against a team they have beaten twice this year at a venue they hold no fear at is too good to turn down. 1 unit
NFL - New York Jets v Baltimore Ravens - Under 45.5 @ 1.84
George
The NFL season kicks off this weekend, with all of us here at Stake HQ incredibly excited for the campaign ahead!
One of the opening fixtures will see the Ravens fly to the Meadowlands and face a Jets team desperate to get off to a good start for the first time since 2018.
This will be a tougher task with the confirmation of QB Zach Wilson out for the first three weeks, as well as left tackle Mekhi Becton officially ruled out for all of 2022.
When looking at the Ravens their team is primed for another strong season led by play-caller Lamar Jackson with a strong supporting cast consisting of Mark Andrews, J.K Dobbins, Calais Campbell, Justin Houston and Marlon Humphrey.
Do not expect the points to flow in this game, as the Jets will try and play the game management route with veteran QB Joe Flacco under center and Jackson wanting to implement the running game to ease into their campaign; also worth noting the loss of big-play receiver Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown will be quite a significant loss for the Ravens regarding game pace.
I’m going 24-14 in favour of Baltimore, in one of the more under-whelming fixtures this Sunday afternoon. 3 units
UEFA Champions League- Bayern Munich v Barcelona - Barcelona Total Goals Over 1.5 @ 2.25
Dom Rae
Two heavyweights meet at the Allianz Arena in a mouth watering Champions League clash on Tuesday night.
Both teams have dropped points in games they were expected to win domestically, but couldn't have started their European campaigns in more impressive fashion, Bayern beating Inter 2-0 away and Barcelona dismantling Viktoria Plzen 5-1.
Bayern are odds on in this clash which is surprising given they have drawn with both Monchengladbach and Union Berlin in recent weeks, while the visitors have scored 16 goals and won four on the trot, including a 3-0 away win at Sevilla in that run, tipped in this column last week.
The plot is thickened further with Robert Lewandowski returning to Bavaria for the first time since his summer move to Catalonia, and he is bound to want to show his old side what they're missing.
Barca's attacking talents make them tempting to back at massive odds here, but the price on them to score two or more in what will be an absolute barnstormer is also very enticing and that is the selection for a game the world will be tuning in for. 1 unit
AFL - Collingwood Magpies vs Fremantle Dockers - Asian Total - Under 153.5 @ 1.88
Caelum
Following an incredible first week of the AFL Finals, Collingwood and Fremantle will lock horns in a cutthroat elimination final on Saturday night.
The Magpies fell just short in a spirited display against minor premiers Geelong, while the Dockers came back from 41 points down in the second quarter to eliminate the Western Bulldogs by 13 points.
Prior to their upset win against Collingwood at the MCG in 2019, the Dockers had not beaten the Magpies at the venue since 2006.
But seeing how close the Magpies like to run it seemingly every week, we'll steer clear of the winner markets and focus on the total points.
Collingwood have not managed 100 points since their early season win against Gold Coast, whilst Fremantle have only reached three figures three times this season.
They could only muster 73 points against the Bulldogs last week, who are widely considered one of the weakest defences in the league.
Plus, they only managed 44 at home to the Magpies during the season.
Both sides are very solid at setting up behind the ball.
Fremantle came only second to Melbourne out of the top eight sides for points against during the home & away season, whilst Collingwood's stood tall on numerous occasions during the season, a major reason why they stole 4th spot on the ladder.
Given the expected wet weather and the fact that four of the last five meetings between the sides would have seen this bet get up, we'll back it again in what should be a tense semi final clash. 1 unit
AFL - Melbourne Demons v Brisbane Lions - Melbourne Demons & Under 170.5 - @ 2.33
Matt R
Back for a third week in a row going for the double of match winner and total score line.
Melbourne are for sure the better team going into this game and after a disappointing loss last week will look to bounce back.
The over under line here seems large for two teams that will be evenly matched through the midfield resulting in a lot of stoppages and congestion.
Brisbane were strong last week but up against the reigning premiers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground will see their season come to an end with a dismal score. 2 units
CSGO - ESL Pro League - Faze vs Outsiders - Total Maps: Over 2.5 @ 1.99
Alex
An interesting matchup between these two teams.
While Faze is the clear favourite in this match with a relatively wider map pool, I'm expecting them to ban Vertigo while Outsiders pick Dust 2 as their map pick.
Both teams haven't faced off since March with Outsiders winning 2-0 in overtime.
Considering we haven't seen much of Outsiders competing at the top level since Cologne, it's hard to say if they are still up to standard.
Generally, they've been quite an inconsistent team so it really depends on the day if they can make it a challenging match.
Despite this, 1.99 for the match to go over 2.5 maps seems like a good price. 1 unit
La Liga - Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia CF - 1x2 Valencia CF @ 3.20
Cesar
Valencia travels up to Madrid this weekend to face Rayo Vallecano who come off having one of their best seasons in La Liga in recent years.
Looking at Rayo’s squad, we can see La Liga experience all around, with two or three youngsters who bring some energy into the team.
Despite securing decent results against teams like Barcelona, Man Utd and Espanyol, their latest football has not been their best and seem to be lacking power and speed going forward.
Valencia however, have showed signs of resurrection after years of terrible management, mediocre football and angry fans.
In recent times, their new additions have proven to be gelling together quite well, and the fans seem to be enjoying the changes.
With Gattuso at the wheel, Valencia’s football has been quite fast and attacking and this could be credited not only to the manager but their new signings who are young and full of hunger to prove themselves.
Players such as Nico, Castillejo, Kluivert and Ilaix Moriba have fitted in straight away, providing great performances.
After a massive thumping last week against Getafe, Valencia will be in high spirits, buzzing to continue a run of positive results early in the season, which may be key to secure European football spots.
Rayo will be waiting for them at home after 2 consecutive losses, looking to bite back with experience and grit.
There is no doubt this match will be a battle between two teams who are seeking to refresh their runs in La Liga, but I see Valencia running away with another win here. 3 units
NFL - Pittsburgh v Cincinnati - Cincinnati -5.5 @ 1.80
Nathan Pap
The most special time of the year is back and could not think of a better way to kick off the season than with a classic AFC North rivalry.
Riding high from their dream run last season and strong off-season, the Bengals begin their quest to get back to the Super Bowl.
The Steelers are have a lot of unknowns and will be starting the season for a new QB for the first time in over a decade.
Paycor Stadium will be rocking in Ohio and Joe Burrow and company start their year off in hot fashion.
Bengals to win and cover fairly comfortably. 1 unit
UFC 279 - Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz - Chimaev via Submission @ 2.47
Ben
Main event for UFC 279 sees superstar Khamzat 'Borz' Chimaev take on a UFC legend, Nate Diaz.
Khamzat comes into the fight holding an 11-0 undefeated record, featuring some very decisive victories.
Borz is clearly in a stronger physical condition than Nate, and he's simply more powerful, hungrier for the win, and a far better wrestler.
Khamzat learned in his last fight not to take risks by standing and throwing looking for KO glory, this time he will return to a fast takedown and submit strategy that works for him.
I see Khamzat taking less risks, and actually listening to the coach who instructs him to take the fight to the ground and submit ASAP.
Personally I don't see Nate making it past the first round, though he can be surprising and I'd love to see some back and fourth between the two. 3 units
NFL - Washington Commanders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - Winner (Incl. Overtime) - Jacksonville Jaguars @2.18
Tangy
FOOTBALL IS BACK BABY!
And what better way to jump in on the betting action than with possibly one of the worser matchups on the early slate of Sunday games, Commanders vs. Jags!
Two teams that bottomed out last year, and neither team looking at a lights out record for the upcoming season either.
But from a betting perspective, we’re seeing some potential value on the Jags to steal this one.
Stats won’t necessarily help the case in this matchup.
Washington went 1-4 last season against non-conference teams while the Jags saw a pitiful 0-5 record in the same situation.
What they do possess though, is the return of highly touted Travis Etienne from his season ending foot injury suffered last rookie year, the clearance of James Robinson to return to the backfield, the addition of Christian Kirk to lead the receiving corps, topped off with what I see will be another BIG leap year for Trevor Lawrence.
This offence is explosive!
We’ve still got question marks on whether this organisation can figure it out but the tools are there, let’s back them to start season 2022 with an underdog win. 3 units