What's up, fight fans? Welcome back to another Fight Night breakdown.
This week’s card is intriguing as it involves a lot of closely contested bouts between ranked contenders.
The real question this week is can we cash in 4 in a row? We've been on a roll and hope you guys have been following as we look to cash all those tickets yet again, so let's dive right in!
Sean Strickland vs Abus Magomedov
The UFC has put together an interesting main event this weekend as rank 7 Sean Strickland steps down to welcome unranked veteran Abus Magomedov.
Sean Strickland is a unique character in the sport with an unfiltered media personality combined with a brawler boxing fighting style which makes him a hit among fans.
Behind the bold character is a courageous man whose comeback from a life-threatening road accident to go on an impressive win streak.
Strickland has a simple yet technical boxing style which has proven to be effective in his wins over top contenders like Jack Hermansson, Brendan Allen, and Nassourdine Imavov.
He has only fallen short against the top 3 fighters in Alex Pereira and Jared Cannonier at Middleweight but with a big win this weekend Strickland will be back in the title picture.
Strickland’s mysterious dance partner this weekend is Germany’s Abus Magomedov.
Abus has been fast-tracked into a main event in his 2nd UFC fight similar to Jiri Prochazka, attributed to his wealth of MMA experience outside the UFC.
The German has fought in top promotions like PFL and KSW while maintaining an impressive 25-4-1 record.
He is an explosive striker who will look for an early knockout but has a wrestling background to lean on in the later rounds.
Abus has been successful in getting his opponents out in the first round including his UFC debut but it will be exciting to see him deal with the pressure if he gets extended into the later rounds by a UFC veteran like Strickland.
Our first bet this week comes on the Women’s Flyweight matchup between Ariane Lipski and Melissa Gato.
Lipski has been a hit or miss in the UFC with a 4-5 promotional record.
Alternatively, Gato is a well-rounded prospect on the rise who has beaten good contenders like Sijara Eubanks & Karol Rosa.
Contrary to the prop odds we'll take the plus money line for Gato to finish Lipski who's been finished in 60% of her UFC losses.
Our next bet is on our much-anticipated co-main event between top Lightweight prospects.
This is a close fight but considering that this may be Damir's retirement fight, we are not sure where his motivation lies against a hungry contender in Dawson.
Damir struggled with a competent wrestler like Tsarukyan, and we think Dawson has the style to counter him.
Dawson outwrestled an Olympic medallist in his last outing, and he is getting better with every fight so we’ll take him at near 2/1 odds.
Our final pick this weekend comes on our main event between Sean Strickland and Abus Magomedov.
This is a great fight but is surrounded by many uncertainties as the fight fans have seen Abus fight for only 19 seconds in the Octagon.
In the last 10 years betting the overs on main events which have had the totals at 3.5 have gotten punters a 15-16% ROI.
We'll side with the market trends in a fight that will be close and likely get extended if Abus cannot get an early knockout.