2024 US Presidential Election Predictions - Who Will Win the Election?

Can you believe it’s been four years already? 2020 was a historic year for a whole host of reasons, not least Joe Biden’s defeat of Donald Trump in the presidential election. It lit the touchpaper on an already divisive atmosphere in the United States that culminated in protests, congressional hearings galore, and a reinvigorated Trump ready to take another stab at not remaining a one-term president.

Now, we sit on the potential cusp of another momentous occasion in history as the New York business mogul goes up against incumbent vice president Kamala Harris who could become the first female president and just the second president of African-American descent after the ever-popular yet ever-divisive Barack Obama in the 2024 presidential election . Who will come out on top this time?

Let's dive into our expert predictions and picks to win to help you form your betting slip with the best odds on Stake Sportsbook .

2024 US Election Updates

If you thought that the 2024 presidential election was destined to be a quiet one, you must have been living under a rock. Already, the campaign trail has been littered with controversy, shock announcements, and intrigue. It’s been a campaign that could have been ripped directly from the mind of Hunter S. Thompson, though already much more eventful than his 1973 classic Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail ‘72. Much like the constantly evolving world we see in sports betting, the pendulum of popularity and potential outcomes continues to swing. So what’s the latest lowdown and what has happened in this monumental election run?

Joe Biden Drops Out

While Kamala Harris is the current Democratic nominee , the campaign didn’t begin that way. Joe Biden, the sitting president of the United States, was the initial pick. However, with his age standing against him, evidenced by some less-than-convincing public appearances and a shocking debate performance, confounded by a subsequent COVID-19 infection, the long-time Democrat pulled out and suggested his running mate take over on July 21, 2024.

Trump’s Near Miss

In an event that shocked the world, while speaking at a rally in Pennsylvania, former president and Republican nominee Donald Trump was shot at. Thankfully, the only damage the magnate suffered was a wounded ear. The reprehensible act has galvanised Trump and his campaign since then has largely been focused on his near miss and perceived resilience.

Running Mate Picks

As much as the two figureheads in the race understandably take the headlines, quite a stir has been made over the VP picks from the respective presidential candidates. In the Republican corner is J.D. Vance, an author and senator for Ohio, who has not been without his own controversy.

As for the Democrats, Minnesotan governor Tim Walz has been selected as the vice president pick for Harris. With a background of supporting progressive policies, he is a strong choice for a party looking to win over a younger, more diverse crowd. It’s interesting to see what difference to the political odds that this will make.

When is the US Election 2024?

Depending on when you’re reading this, there could still be some time to wait for the big day. The vote is scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Counting can, as you would imagine in a nation so large, take around two weeks. That means that it could be approaching December before we have an idea of who will take their place in the White House and the Electoral College ratifies the choice. Following that, and unless there are any delays or contentions like those seen back in 2020, the inauguration date is set for January 20, 2025.

Current Candidates & History

The two nominees for this year’s election are, again, chalk and cheese when it comes to their backgrounds and running platforms. Much like the 2016 election that saw Donald Trump face off against Hillary Clinton, we’re witnessing an outsider versus a career politician with years and plenty of skin in the game. So who exactly are the candidates?

Donald Trump

The Republican nominee needs almost no introduction. Having served four years in office between 2017 and 2021, Trump is not exactly an unknown quantity. A controversial figure due to his policy stances, inflammatory rhetoric, and celebrity past, the former Apprentice host is perhaps seen as something of a novelty, even in spite of having been the 45th president. His campaign is certainly even more controversial this time around, owing specifically to his multiple impeachments, the political unrest in the face of his loss last time around, his relationships with questionable figures, and his recent felony indictments and convictions. This hasn’t tempered his popularity with his devoted fanbase, though, and it appears he is as well-backed as ever.

Kamala Harris

Having served as the most recent vice president, Harris is well-known to Americans and global citizens alike now. However, as a career politician, her background has maybe spent less time in the spotlight when compared with her opponent. A decorated attorney, the former senator of California has lived a life in public service, beginning with her 2004 instatement as the attorney general of San Francisco. She is of both African-American and South-Asian-American descent and has spoken at length on her background and how it informs her left-wing politics. Because of this, she scores highly with retirees, trade unions, and civil liberties groups, placing her diametrically opposed to her Republican counterpart.

The Best of the Rest

Of course, while the US presidential race is largely seen as a two-horse one, there are third-party candidates voters should be aware of. Jill Stein and Chase Oliver are the most obvious candidates, standing for the Green Party and Libertarian Party respectively. However, further down the list, and without access to the 270 electoral votes needed for presidency, you have the likes of the popular independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy JR., a member of the Kennedy Dynasty and prominent activist. Ultimately dropping out of the race, Nikki Haley, a former member of Trump’s cabinet, would have been a dark horse in the race.

US Election Forecasts & Polls

Over the years, many have advised to not put too much stock in the polls when it comes to predicting the outcome of a presidential election. In 2016, the early polls seemed to suggest that Hillary Clinton would be the next US president, and we all know how that went. However, as it stands, there are some clear indications of the general mood in the States that could indicate who we will see taking their place as leader of the free world in 2025.

As it stands, it looks like Donald Trump edges out the somewhat unknown in Kamala Harris, with polls in late July suggesting around a 48% to 46% split in popularity between the two. This is obviously early data and election forecasting is subject to change in the following months but would certainly suggest that this will be a tight race that might come down to success in hotly-contested swing states like Arizona and Georgia .

Who is Favoured to Win Each State?

With the current polling data available, there appears to be a very clear split in the states in which each candidate is most popular. The state of play as of July 29, 2024, is as follows, with the predicted winner and their percentage edge of the vote shares.

US Election Odds & Betting Tips

As with the current forecasts from the official polling organisations, it’s important to note that political odds can and will fluctuate between now and the election. It’s likely that we will see the Democratic party nominee in Harris receive a boost in popularity and backing at some point, especially in the event of a strong VP nomination. At Stake, Trump sits at the 1.57 mark at the time of writing, while his main opponent is just behind at 2.35. Interestingly, former First Lady Michelle Obama is the next up at 41.00.

Politics betting , much like sports betting, isn’t a zero-sum game, though. While focus will undoubtedly be on the outright winner , there are other markets to be explored that can offer some difference in value. For example, the popular vote winner may not be the candidate who comes away with the presidency. In 2016, for example, Hillary would have won on that metric despite handily losing out to the Donald. Because of this, it’s advised to look into other markets, such as which party will have the winner , and see if there are options there.

Ultimately, though, the best tips and strategies for political betting are those that prioritise responsibility and player safety. At Stake, we have a number of guides and resources available, including Stake Smart , to ensure safer gambling. As well as that, there are a number of rewards and promotions , including our VIP system , that can help you eke out value without letting your wagering get away from you.